The nations of Southeast Asia are slowly recapitalising their combat aircraft fleets as the return of geopolitics spurs governments to take security more seriously.
Before the 2020s, Southeast Asian countries – with the notable exception of Singapore – took a somewhat casual approach to fighter procurement.
Indonesia and Malaysia were content with mixed fleets of ageing types while making half-hearted efforts to obtain new aircraft. The Philippines went to the extreme of letting its fast jet capability disappear altogether: from 2005-2015 Manila possessed no fighter aircraft, following the retirement of its Northrop F-5s.
But the benign geopolitical environment that prevailed after the end of the Cold War is now gone. China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, and the tensions this has generated among both regional and major powers, has given a strong boost to the regional market for combat aircraft.
“Southeast Asia is clearly making the move towards fifth-generation fighters, but in a fairly spotty fashion,” says Malcolm Davis, senior analyst, defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
“At the very least, four-plus-generation platforms are making an appearance as well, with fifth-generation-like capabilities. But as is usual with Southeast Asia, the numbers of platforms to be acquired are constrained by money and the ability to operate and sustain such aircraft. There are also continuing trends towards small numbers of multiple types, leading to incoherent force structures for some states.”
Cirium, an aviation analytics company, indicates that the air forces of ASEAN – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – have an inventory of about 532 fixed-wing combat aircraft, with orders for nearly 140.
These aircraft are mostly jets but also include a handful of turboprops with a combat capability. Mission sets listed for the region’s combat fleet include multi-role combat, ground attack, air defence, and close air support.
On paper, Myanmar is Southeast Asia’s biggest operator of combat aircraft, with 116, both jet- and turboprop-powered. However, serviceability for a large part of this fleet is open to question.
The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) follows with 109 fixed-wing aircraft that possess a combat capability.
Paradoxically, one of the biggest operators of combat aircraft in the region is its smallest nation, Singapore. Cirium suggests that the city state accounts for nearly one-fifth of Southeast Asia’s in-service fixed-wing combat fleet, with 100 aircraft.
The region’s largest nation by geography, Indonesia, has just 90 in-service aircraft with a combat capability. It also accounts for most of the region’s orderbook for fighters, with 90 commitments.
Vietnam follows with 66 fixed-wing combat jets, while Malaysia and the Philippines come in at the tail end, with 40 and 11, respectively.
In recent years Indonesia has been the region’s most compelling air force modernisation story. Its ageing fleet is spread among five types that offer little commonality.
The mainstay of Jakarta’s fleet are 33 Lockheed Martin F-16s with an average age of 38.5 years. Of these, 10 are F-16A/Bs and 23 are F-16C/Ds. This fleet has seen some updates, but nothing like the comprehensive F-16 upgrade programmes undertaken by other big regional F-16 operators such as Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
Indonesia also operates five Sukhoi Su-27s and 11 Su-30MKs in the air defence role. In addition, it has 28 older BAE Systems Hawk 100/200s and 13 newer Embraer EMB-314/A-29 Super Tucanos for ground attack work.
In a major conflict, this modest fleet would struggle against more sophisticated and modern adversaries. Jakarta appears to have recognised this and has taken steps of various effectiveness to modernise its fighter force.
A key step occurred in February 2022, when Jakarta announced it would obtain 48 Dassault Aviation Rafales. Indonesia’s first Rafale broke cover in France in August 2025 and pilots and ground crew are undergoing training pending imminent delivery.
When fully deployed, Indonesia’s Rafales will form the backbone of its air force, offering advanced air-to-air and precision strike capabilities. The Rafale’s datalink and sensor capabilities present a major upgrade compared with Indonesia’s existing fighter fleet.
The effectiveness of other Indonesian initiatives to field a modern fighter fleet are more doubtful.
Indonesia has been a member of the Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) KF-21 programme since 2010. Plans call for it to obtain 48 examples of a special IFX variant. Testing with the programme in South Korea has been smooth, but the partnership between the two countries has been rocky, as Indonesia long sought to reduce its funding commitment.
Moreover, a data theft scandal roiled the relationship in 2024, with allegations that Indonesian engineers in South Korea had stolen programme data on a USB device.
The relationship was eventually reset in June 2025, with Jakarta’s share of the programme cost reduced to KRW600 billion ($417 million), or about 7% of development costs. Despite this outlay, Jakarta has yet to announce a formal order for the KF-21, raising questions about what it has gained from its investment in the South Korean programme.
July 2025 also saw an Indonesian bombshell, with Jakarta signing a contract for 48 Turkish Aerospace Kaan fighters, becoming the first buyer outside of Turkey. While the Kaan could have great promise, the programme is still in its infancy. The KF-21, by contrast, is a vastly more mature programme: it has marched through years of testing and will enter South Korean service by the end of 2026.
Jakarta has also looked at a bewildering assortment of other jets, including a 2023 memorandum of understanding with Boeing for up to 24 F-15EXs. Indonesian officials have also said they are considering the Chengdu J-10C, while Russian officials reportedly claim that Jakarta is still interested in the Sukhoi Su-35 – an earlier plan to buy the Russian type was kyboshed by the threat of US sanctions.
“There’s little in the way of a coherent approach to developing a credible air combat capability that can be sustained effectively, and I’d not be surprised if some of these planned purchases fall apart,” says Davis.
“Indonesia, like some other Southeast Asian states, is clearly seeking to diversify away from dependency on the USA.”
The Philippines is another promising market for fighters, despite glacial progress with its Multi-Role Fighter (MRF) competition, which has been long contested by the F-16 Block 70/72 and the Saab Gripen E/F. KAI, a late comer to the competition, is also pitching the KF-21.
“I suspect that Manila will want a credible air combat capability to defend its airspace and respond to challenges from China, and so there will be greater investment in more advanced capability,” says Davis.
“I’d argue that a platform like the KF-21 makes a great deal of sense, if they can buy it in significant numbers, and sustain them so they have high readiness. Training is also vital, and the Philippines needs to engage more in multinational exercises, such as Australia’s Pitch Black.”
Manila has said that up to 40 aircraft could be obtained, but the programme has dragged on for years, mainly owing to funding constraints and competing priorities.
With the MRF effort in perpetual limbo, Manila has taken other steps to boost its airpower. In June, it placed a $700 million order for an additional 12 KAI FA-50PH light combat aircraft that will arrive by 2030.
Manila’s new FA-50PHs will include an air-to-air refuelling capability, something lacking in its existing FA-50 fleet. The new jets will provide a sensor boost in the form of Raytheon’s PhantomStrike active electronically scanned array radar.
More recently, KAI announced a $64.5 million contract to update Manila’s existing fleet of 11 FA-50PHs. The work will improve guided-munitions capabilities, range, and the ability to operate in a joint network.
Given that Manila must also contend with insurrections, particularly in Mindanao, it took delivery of six Super Tucano light attack aircraft in 2020. Philippine officials have said that the country is the “undisclosed customer” mentioned in an Embraer order announcement for six Super Tucanos in late 2024.
In what could be a foreshadowing for Manila’s eventual MRF decision, another traditional USA ally in the region, Thailand, opted in 2025 for the Gripen E/F over the F-16 Block 70/72. Bangkok plans to buy 12 new jets that will supplement the 11 Gripen C/Ds already operated by the RTAF. Also in the Thai inventory are 47 F-16A/Bs, 33 F-5THs and 18 Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jets.
Overall, 14 of the F-5THs have been upgraded to the ‘Super Tigris’ standard, which will help them stay relevant into the 2030s. The updated jets have a new Elbit Systems avionics suite, an all-glass cockpit, and a Leonardo Grifo-F mechanically scanned radar. Crucially, the F-5THs feature the Link-T datalink, allowing close cooperation with other RTAF assets, namely the Gripen and Saab 340-based Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft.
The RTAF also sent F-16s and Gripens into combat during border skirmishes with Cambodia in July and in December 2025. The July sorties are thought to have been the Gripen’s first combat deployment, and involved precision air-to-ground strikes. In December, the sorties focused on Cambodian military installations and heavy weapons.
Thailand’s southern neighbour, Malaysia, faces obsolescence challenges across its fighter fleet. The backbone of Malaysian airpower are 18 Su-30MKMs with an average age of 17.6 years. In January the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) completed a service life extension programme (SLEP) that will see the Russian type serve until at least the mid-2030s.
The SLEP/Preventive Restoration Works effort involved 75 technicians from the RMAF and Aerospace Technology Systems Corporation, a government-owned company whose main role is to support the local Sukhoi fleet. Reports indicate that the fleet, which has long suffered sustainment issues, continues to face challenges getting spare parts.
In addition, the Royal Malaysian Air Force operates seven Boeing F/A-18Ds and 15 Hawks, of which 11 are single-seat 208-model examples that serve in the strike role, and four two-seat 108s that are trainers with a secondary ground attack role. Both fleets are ageing: the average age of the F-18s is 28.5 years, and it is 31.2 years for the Hawks.
In early 2023 Kuala Lumpur took a notable step towards modernisation when it decided to order 18 FA-50s under the Fighter Lead In Trainer-Light Combat Aircraft requirement. Pending their arrival in 2026, the South Korean-built jet will replace the Hawks as well as RAC MiG-29s which were retired in 2017.
Kuala Lumpur’s FA-50s will have the ability to conduct air-to-air refuelling and have an expanded weapons capability. Long-term plans call for the acquisition of 18 additional FA-50s, which would bring its total commitment to 36 jets.
Malaysia’s pursuit of 33 surplus Kuwaiti F/A-18C/Ds remains in limbo. While the US government has approved the third-party transfer, RMAF chief General Muhamad Aris recently said that Kuwait cannot release the jets until at least 2027, as it needs time to integrate its 28 new F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.
Furthermore, Malaysia faces an additional 15-month delay for mandatory US-required equipment modifications upon delivery. Given these challenges and an estimated $4 million per-aircraft upgrade cost, Malaysia is weighing alternatives, foremost of which is its Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) programme, which will replace its Su-30MKMs and Hornets.
Potential contenders for MRCA include the Rafale, KF-21, and the F-15EX. At the 2025 Langkawi air show, China’s AVIC also promoted the Chengdu J-10CE and Shenyang J-35A stealth fighters.
Vietnam faces critical challenges in modernising a combat fleet composed of 35 Su-30s, 11 Su-27s, and 19 ageing Su-22s, the latter of which average over 36 years in service. While Hanoi was touted as a potential customer for 24 F-16Vs in early 2025, a Foreign Military Sales case has yet to materialise.
Moreover, there are reports – based on allegedly leaked Russian documents from late 2025 – that suggest Vietnam may obtain 40 Su-35s via an oil barter deal with Russia.
Like Thailand, Myanmar’s air force has seen action, with the junta leaning on airpower to hit various rebel groups that are fighting a running insurrection. Many of its jets are older Chinese and Russian types, but these are understood to be unserviceable.
Naypyidaw’s main combat jets are seven Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex JF-17s with an average age of 7.2 years, and six new Su-30SMs. However, media reports suggest that the entire JF-17 fleet is grounded owing to issues such as structural cracks in airframes and problems with the fighters’ Russian-made RD-93 engines.
At the opposite end of the spectrum from Myanmar’s ramshackle air force is that of Singapore, which boasts the region’s best equipped and best maintained fleet. The mainstay of this advanced force are 40 F-15SGs with an average of 13.9 years. The F-15SGs are supported by 60 F-16s, which recently completed a major upgrade programme to the advanced F-16V standard.
Singapore is also set to become the region’s first operator of stealth aircraft, with orders for 20 Lockheed F-35s, of which 12 are for the short take-off and vertical landing F-35B variant, and eight are for the conventional take-off and landing F-35A. The first four F-35Bs are due for delivery in 2026, although they will be initially based at Ebbing air base in Arkansas to support training. Eight more F-35Bs will arrive in 2028, with the F-35As due in the 2030 timeframe.
Davis observes that buying an aircraft is not enough, but it must be maintained properly – not always a given in Southeast Asia.
“The key issue of importance in considering Southeast Asia fighter development is not which country is buying what platform, but whether states can actually sustain their acquisitions for operational readiness, and whether they can ensure their air crew and maintenance personnel are ready to ensure the aircraft are available.”
He adds that the advent of unmanned collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) also offer the potential for Southeast Asian countries to beef up their force numbers.
Indeed, regional nations without an existing fast jet capability, such as Brunei, Cambodia and East Timor, could eventually see low-cost CCAs or armed uncrewed aerial vehicles as a cost-effective way to improve capabilities.
The upcoming Singapore air show will offer some indications about where existing fighter procurements stand. It will be interesting to observe how actively companies such as Anduril Industries, Boeing, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Lockheed, and Northrop promote their CCA offerings at the show. CCAs had a low profile at the last iteration of the show in 2024, but since then the USA and other nations have made notable advances in developing CCAs, including several first flights.
But before Southeast Asian nations embark on CCAs, they are likely to make some big bets on manned fighters. That means that the major fighter makers will out in force at this year’s Singapore show.
