Despite sharing a poor earnings outlook for the first quarter – thanks in no small part to a major winter storm that pummelled much of the USA over the weekend – American Airlines still expects to be profitable for the full year of 2026.
American’s executives said during the company’s 27 January earnings call that they anticipate a first-quarter adjusted loss of ten to 50 cents per share. Based on American’s current number of outstanding shares, that would equate to an adjusted loss of $66-$330 million.
A winter storm days ago is the primary culprit for the gloomy forecast, as American was forced to cancel some 9,000 flights during a four-day period as its main hubs in Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte were inundated with ice and snow.
“The guidance range for the quarter is slightly wider than what we traditionally use as we continue to evaluate the impact of this extraordinary weather event for the full year,” says chief financial officer Devon May.
Additionally, American estimates a revenue impact of $150 million to $200 million as a result of the massive snowstorm.
“Our guidance always includes a completion factor assumption for winter weather,” May says. “But… the impact of this storm is unlike anything we have ever experienced.”
Despite the weather-related disruptions, American executives say the airline remains set up for a profitable 2026. Specifically, it forecasts adjusted earnings of $1.70-$2.70 per share – or roughly $1.1 - $1.8 billion.
That would represent a major step up from American’s full-year net profit of $111 million in 2025.
Even if American’s hopes for 2026 pan out, the Fort Worth-based carrier would still likely trail well behind competitors Delta Air Lines and United Airlines in terms of profitability. Delta and United raked in profits of $5 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, for the full year of 2025.
“While 2025 wasn’t the year anyone in the industry thought it would be, and no matter the unique challenges American faced, we did the hard work to build a solid foundation for our future,” says chief executive Robert Isom.
He points to relatively new labour agreements with American’s pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and flight-training crews – along with ongoing fleet renewal initiatives – as clearing the way for future growth.
“Our fleet is in excellent shape, thanks to the significant investments we have made,” Isom says. ”We have low capital requirements and no required aircraft retirements for the foreseeable future. Over the next few years, we will continue to expand our international fleet and premium seating and retrofit programmes.”
With dozens of premium-outfitted Boeing 787s and Airbus A321XLRs on order, American plans to grow its long-haul fleet from about 140 jets to 200 jets by decade-end.
RIDING ON PREMIUM
Perhaps most crucially for American’s long-term outlook, the company has fully restored its indirect sales channels – a strategy it had moved away from under former chief commercial officer Vasu Raja, in favour of more direct sales distribution.
That decision proved near-disastrous, as the carrier fell behind competitors that embraced mixed sales models and American suffered a significant hit to its corporate and business traveller segments.
“We remain focused on the continued advancement of our sales, distribution and revenue-management efforts,” Isom says. “As we close the year, we have restored our indirect channel share – an important milestone but not the end of our initiatives.
“As we move into 2026, we will continue to deepen the relationships that we’ve built with our corporate agency partners, and capture greater share among high-value corporate travellers and premium leisure customers.”
Isom says American will continue tailoring its premium products to corporate travellers throughout 2026, focusing particularly on its extra-legroom offerings.
American expects first-quarter capacity as measured in available seat kilometres to increase year-on-year 3-5%, boosted by stronger schedules in the carrier’s hubs – especially those in Miami, Philadelphia and Phoenix.
First-quarter revenue, meanwhile, will be up 7-10% year-on-year, according to American’s forecast. That will be driven by anticipated improvements in domestic demand and corporate travel.
“This is inclusive of approximately a point-and-a-half impact” from the recent winter storm, May says.
